Over the course of this week, I’ll be putting out a re-draft of the NHL Entry Drafts from 2006-2012, re-picking the lottery picks (Top 14) of each draft, with the benefit of hindsight. Next up, 2007…
The 2007 Draft saw Patrik Kane taken 1st overall and 10 years later, he’s considered one of the best offensive players in the league. Also in consideration for one of the best offensive players in the league: Jamie Benn, drafted 129th overall in this same draft. Who goes 1st overall in the re-draft, Kane or Benn? Let’s find out…
1. Patrick Kane (1)
Patrick Kane, originally drafted 1st overall, maintains his position at first overall in the re-draft. Kane ranks 1st of all 2007 draftees in points (752), goals (285), and assists (467). Kane also ranks first in points per game at 1.016. Over Kane’s career, he has a 5v5 CF% of 54.7, +1.5 relative to his team. He’s won a Calder Trophy, a Conn Smythe Trophy, a Hart Trophy, a Ted Lindsay Award, and an Art Ross Trophy. He’s finished Top 10 in league goals 3 times, Top 10 in assists 3 times, Top 10 in points 4 times, Top 10 in shots 2 times, and has 123 points in 127 playoff games, including 23 points in 23 games in the 2015 playoffs to help win the Blackhawks their most recent Stanley Cup. Simply put, Kane is an elite offensive player, and one of the best in the league, and deserves the top spot on the 2007 re-draft.
2. Jamie Benn (129)
Jamie Benn, originally drafted 129th overall, rockets up all the way to number 2 in the re-draft. Benn ranks 2nd among the 2007 draft class in points (517), 2nd in goals (218), and 3rd in points (299). Benn also ranks 2nd in points per game (minimum 100 games), at 0.884. Benn has an Art Ross Trophy, has been a First Team All-Star twice, and a Second Team All-Star once. He has a career 5v5 CF% of 51.7, +1.1 relative to his team. He’s finished Top 10 in league goals 3 times, Top 10 in assists once, and Top 10 in points 3 times. He’s a 2-time 30-goal scorer, 1-time 40 goal scorer, and has reached at least 79 points 3 times. Like Kane, he’s an elite offensive talent, but unlike Kane, is a much better defensive player. However, Kane is just so far above everyone in this draft class offensively that although Benn’s defensive skills close the gap, he can only go as high as 2nd in the re-draft.
3. P.K. Subban (43)
P.K. Subban, originally drafted 43rd overall, jumps up into the first round, at 3rd overall in this re-draft. Subban ranks 10th in the draft in points (318), first among defensemen, 16th in goals (73), again first among defensemen, and 5th in assists (245), again first among defensemen. His 0.636 points per game rank 7th overall in the draft, first among defensemen. Subban has a career 5v5 CF% of 52.5, +3.6 relative to his team. He also has 50 points in 77 career playoffs, and has won a James Norris Memorial Trophy. He’s been a First Team All-Star twice in his career, and even finished 8th overall in the NHL in assists per game (0.66) in 2015/2016. Subban is an elite defender in the NHL, both offensively and defensively, shooting up the re-draft list to 3rd overall.
4. Max Pacioretty (22)
Max Pacioretty, originally drafted 22nd overall, jumps up to 4th in the re-draft, as he is one of the best goal-scorers in the NHL today. Pacioretty ranks 4th in points for the 2007 draft (411), 3rd in goals (209), and 8th in assists (202). His points per game of 0.731 also ranks 4th in the draft. In his career, he’s got a 5v5 CF% of 53.5, +5.1 relative to his team. He’s finished as high as 6th in Selke voting, and has 3 Top 10 finishes in league goals, 6 Top 10 seasons in shots, and over the past 4 seasons, Pacioretty has scored the 4th most goals in the league (141), only behind Alexander Ovechkin (187), Joe Pavelski (145), and Sidney Crosby (144). Along with being an elite goal scorer, Pacioretty is also solid defensively, and has averaged 1:14 TOI/GP on the penalty kill over the last 3 seasons. Overall, Pacioretty is an elite scorer who is also good defensively, which places him at number 4 in the re-draft.
5. Jakub Voracek (7)
Jakub Voracek, originally drafted 7th overall, hops up to number 5 in the re-draft. Voracek ranks 3rd overall in the draft in points (488), 8th in goals (155), and 2nd in assists (333). His 0.711 points per game is 5th in the draft. In his career, Voracek has a 5v5 CF% of 53.3, +3.7 relative to his team. Voracek has been a First Team All-Star once, and has finished Top 10 in league goals once, Top 10 in league assists once, and Top 10 in league points once. Voracek is an elite offensive player, more of a play-maker than a goal-scorer, and is a 4-time 20-goal scorer. Pacioretty’s superior goal-scoring ability, his higher points-per-game, and superior defensive ability gives him the higher ranking, but Voracek is an excellent offensive player in his own right, which gives him the 5th position in the re-draft.
6. Ryan McDonagh (12)
Ryan McDonagh, originally drafted 12th overall, jumps up to 6th in this re-draft. McDonagh ranks 15th in points (212), 3rd among defensemen, 23rd overall in goals (49), again 3rd among defensemen, and 13th in assists (163), also 3rd amongst defensemen. McDonagh has a career 5v5 CF% of 49.3, -0.5 relative to his team, but he has spent a lot of time with Dan Girardi, a possession black-hole, as his partner, so that definitely drags his numbers down. McDonagh has finished Top 17 in Norris voting 5 times, peaking at 8th in 2013/2014. He’s a 3-time 30-point, 2-time 40-point defenseman. Overall, despite his numbers likely taking a huge hit due to being saddled to Dan Girardi for most of his career, McDonagh is still a tremendous defenseman, and while he hasn’t had an elite offensive season, he still ranks as the second best defenseman in the 2007 re-draft, placing him at 6th overall.
7. Kevin Shattenkirk (14)
Kevin Shattenkirk, originally drafted 14th, jumped up to the number 7 spot in the re-draft. Shattenkirk ranks 12th overall in points (298), 2nd among defensemen, 18th in goals (68), again 2nd among defensemen, and 6th in assists (230), also 2nd among defensemen. Shattenkirk has a career 5v5 CF% of 53.7, +2.2 relative to his team. He’s finished Top 18 in Norris voting 3 times, his highest being 14th for the 2016/2017 season. While he’s better than McDonagh offensively, he’s not as good defensively, leading to his placing behind McDonagh in the list. But as one of the better offensive defensemen in the league, Shattenkirk jumps up to 7th in the re-draft.
8. Logan Couture (9)
Logan Couture, originally drafted 9th overall, jumps up 1 spot to 8th overall in the re-draft. Couture ranks 8th in points (375), 5th in goals (179), and 9th in assists (196) for his draft class. His points per game of 0.746 ranks 3rd in the draft. He has a career 5v5 CF% of 53.0, +1.0 relative to his team. Couture has finished Top 10 in league goals once, was on the NHL All-Rookie Team in 2010/2011, finished 2nd in Calder voting that same year, and has got some Selke votes over his career. Overall, he’s a great offensive centre, with 2 30-goal seasons and 4 other 20-goal seasons under his belt, along with 2 60-point seasons, and 3 other 50-point seasons. Overall, Couture is a good two-way centre with good offensive skills, which gets him above other players on this list, but his lack of truly elite seasons prevent him from climbing higher on this list.
9. Wayne Simmonds (61)
Wayne Simmonds, originally drafted 61st overall, jumps all the way to 9th overall in the re-draft. Simmonds ranks 6th overall in points (398), 4th in goals (202), and 11th in assists (196). His points per game of 0.579 rank 11th in the draft as well. He’s got a career 5v5 CF% of 50.2, -1.1 relative to his team. However, he’s a 2-time 30-goal scorer, with 1 other 29 goal season, and 2 other 28 goal seasons. Overall, Simmonds is a consistent ~30 goal scorer and ~50/60 point scorer. Despite his weaker possession metrics, Simmonds is still a great offensive contributer, and as the 4th-best goal scorer of this draft, Simmonds jumps up from the last pick in the 2nd round to the 9th pick in the re-draft. Couture ranks above him due to the superior defensive game that Couture possesses, as well as his higher points-per-game.
10. Jake Muzzin (141)
Jake Muzzin, originally drafted 141st overall, rises up to a Top 10 pick in the re-draft. Muzzin ranks 20th in points (150), 4th among defensemen, 26th in goals (39), 5th among defensemen, and 17th in assists (111), 4th among defensemen. His points per game of 0.403 places his 19 in the draft, 4th among defensemen. Muzzin is a career 58.1 5v5 CF% player, +3.3 relative to his team. He has 2 seasons of 40+ points, and in 2015/2016 finished 20th in Norris voting. He helped the Kings to a Stanley Cup in 2014 with 6 goals and 12 points in 26 playoff games. Offensively, Muzzin isn’t the greatest offensive player in this draft, but is a strong defensive player, who can still contribute offensively. Although he’s not as talent as the other defensemen mentioned above in this re-draft, his defensive skills bump him up to his spot as the 10th pick in the re-draft.
11. James van Riemsdyk (2)
James van Riemsdyk, originally drafted 2nd overall, tumbled all the way down to 11th overall in the re-draft. van Riemsdyk ranks 9th overall in points (339), 6th in goals (165), and 12th in assists (174). His 0.642 puts him at 6th in the draft. Over his career, he’s had a 5v5 CF% of 49.2, +0.6 relative to his team. He’s finished Top 10 in shots league-wide once, in 2013/2014, where he placed 7th. He’s scored 30 goals once, 29 goals once, and has 2 other 20-goal seasons on top of that. In addition to that, he’s had 2 60-point seasons, and 1 other 50-point season in addition to that. Overall, van Riemsdyk isn’t the greatest player defensively, and while he isn’t an elite offensive player, he’s still very good, which is why he ends up at 11th in the re-draft, but behind the superior offensive players mentioned above.
12. Mikael Backlund (24)
Mikael Backlund, originally picked 24th overall, flies up to 12th overall in this re-draft. Backlund ranks 13th in points (228), 12th in goals (94), and 14th in assists (134). His 0.495 points per game puts him at 13th overall in the draft class. However, Backlund has a career 52.5 5v5 CF%, which is +5.2 relative to his team. With only 2 20-goal seasons and 1 50-point season, Backlund isn’t exactly an elite offensive player, but he’s a tremendous player defensively. He finished 4th in Selke voting this past year, and had a 63.7 dZS% (defensive-zone start percentage). Overall, Backlund is a good offensively player who is elite defensively, but with a small track record of good offensive stats, Backlund still ranks below van Riemsdyk, who is a little more proven. However, in a few years, if Backlund puts together a few more good offensive seasons, he could easily climb up even higher on this list.
13. Kyle Turris (3)
Kyle Turris, originally the 3rd pick in this draft, is the other player who took a big fall. Turris is 11th in points for this draft (311), 10th in goals (133), and 11th in assists (178). His points per game of 0.583 puts him at 9th overall in the draft. Turris has a career 50.8 5v5 CF%, +0.9 relative to his team. Turris has 3 seasons in which he had 50+ points, including one 64-point season, and is a 3-time 20-goal scorer. He hasn’t gotten any award consideration, and the only stat in which he’s finished Top 10 league wide is games played. Overall, Turris isn’t an elite player, but he’s still a good offensive forward. While he’s not great defensively, he’s still competent in his own end. Overall, Turris is an average Top 6 forward, but he lacks the elite defensive skill of Backlund or the goal scoring ability of van Riemsdyk to be ranked above them.
14. Alec Martinez (95)
Alec Martinez, originally drafted 95th overall, closes out the lottery picks in the 2007 re-draft. Martinez ranks 21st in points (147), 5th among defensemen, 24th overall in goals (48), 4th among defensemen, and 20th in assists, 5th among defensemen. Martinez has a 5v5 CF% of 55.3, -0.5 relative to his team. He scored the Stanley Cup winning goal in 2014, and has scored 30+ points twice in his career, and had 20+ points 2 other times. Like Turris, he hasn’t gotten any awards consideration, but he still put together a few solid offensive seasons for a defensemen. He isn’t great defensively like Muzzin, so that puts a ceiling on where he can be ranked, but his offensive ability gets him up to 14th in the re-draft.